US intelligence community says quantum computing and AI pose an ’emerging threat’ to national security
It’s not
often you can put nuclear weapons, terrorism and climate change on the same
list as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things,
but the U.S. government believes all pose an “emerging threat” to its national
security.
Several key
agencies in the U.S. intelligence community were asked what they saw as
long-term threats faced by the country in the next decade and beyond, and the
future of “dual-use technologies” took center stage.
Agnostic
technologies like encryption, autonomous and unmanned systems, AI and quantum
computing rank at the top of the agencies’ “worry list” for fears that they
could be used to cause harm, rather than advance society. While all can be used
for good — to secure data, to survey a dangerous area or simply to save time
and effort — the government says that all can have disastrous effects if used
by an adversary.
For example,
the government says that, “adversaries could gain increased access to AI
through affordable designs used in the commercial industry, and could apply AI
to areas such as weapons and technology,” and that “quantum communications
could enable adversaries to develop secure communications that U.S. personnel
would not be able to intercept or decrypt.”
The list of
emerging threats also includes information operations — such as those
purportedly carried out by adversarial nation states in the run up to recent
elections — may engage in “advanced information operations campaigns that use
social media, artificial intelligence, and data analytics to undermine the
United States and its allies.”
It’s no
surprise that the government fears the unknown: warfare in this day and age has
adapted beyond recognition, with nation states targeting one another with
literal “cyber-bombs” and disinformation campaigns, sowing seeds of doubt
rather than lobbing bombs over borders.
“As such,
the nature of warfare has evolved to include ‘gray zone’ conflict — defined as
the area between war and peace — where weaker adversaries have learned how to
seize territory and advance their agendas in ways not recognized as ‘war’ by
Western democracies,” the government watchdog wrote. Notably, the U.S. pointed
its finger specifically at China and Russia — with Iran a close third — for
“pursuing gray zone strategies to achieve their objectives without resorting to
military conflict.”
And the U.S.
knows it has to keep up with the range of threats, or face weakening on the
world stage.
“The
challenge for the United States and its allies will be to develop responses
faster than adversaries through a better understanding of the strategic
environment,” the government said. That might be tougher than it seems, given
that senior government officials said the U.S. has been “strategically
surprised” by how fast the threats have evolved.
“The nature
of conflict has changed, and so the United States must evolve,” the government
said.
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